Could Bird Hunting Hold The Key To Succesful Investing?

“Would you tell me, please, which way I ought to go from here?”

“That depends a good deal on where you want to get to,” said the Cheshire Cat.

“I don’t much care where—-.” said Alice.

“Then it doesn’t matter which way you go,” said the Cat.

“—so long as I get somewhere,” Alice added as an explanation.

“Oh you’re sure to do that,” said the Cat, “if you only walk long enough.”

—Lewis Carroll, Alice’s Adventures in Wonderland

Several years ago, I had the opportunity to go pheasant hunting with one of my best friends.  We had a blast. No pun intended…SMILE!  Anyway, every bird hunter knows that in order to have a successful hunt, you don’t shoot where the bird is, but where the bird is going to be.  You have to lead the bird.  Could the same concept apply to investing?

Successful investing in the stock market involves more than simply selecting a stock, bond, or mutual fund.  It involves understanding intermarket relationships and how they create trends…trends of opportunity (think of these trends as being similar to the flight path of a bird).  Different investments and asset classes come into, and go out of favor, at different times in the business and economic cycles.  Additionally, the stock market moves in long-term, or secular cycles (secular meaning age or era of time).  These secular cycles can last 8, 10, 15 years or more.  They are either up or down or sideways.  Obviously, this has huge implications for us as investors…and you are not going to hear your mainstream or traditional broker talk about them for a number of reasons….but that is totally different blog!

In a secular bull market, all one needs to do is to buy an equity index fund and enjoy the ride.  Blind dogs make money in secular bull markets.  In a secular bear market, the rules of the game completely change.  Circumstances change (sound familiar).  You must have a method or model to lead the market..just like a duck hunter leads the duck.  You must study and understand the relationship between interest rate trends, currency exchange rate trends, geopolitical trends, rising and falling commodity and real estate prices, economic changes, global demography trends, and the price behavior of the stock market.

Only after doing the above, can you raise your gun and take aim.  Learn more here:  http://www.richinvests.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=28&Itemid=44

Good hunting!